Markets

I love watching lines go up and down on Polymarket's BTC up-or-down markets. I was there when the shortest market was 15 minutes - you young ones with your 5-minute windows have it too easy. At some point I realized I enjoy it exactly the same without money on the outcome, which makes it a very cheap hobby. I still cheer when the line drops in the last 10 seconds harder than the bass at a David Guetta concert and the people who bought a sure win at 97 cents start crying. You can watch it here for free - though I doubt you'll enjoy it the way I do.

Making money on Polymarket has been a hot topic for a while. Since I love wasting my time properly, I checked whether any of the patterns the great minds of trading suggest (sell) hold any weight. The answer was visible just from the trading patterns of top earners in each category: there is no clear pattern. And if someone did find one that worked, they wouldn't sell it to you - they'd use it.

I spent several months capturing data and comparing it against the historical archives I could find. All I found in the end was true love, in the form of several China- and India-based IP addresses blasting my poor GCP server hoping to steal crypto I don't have.